Survival Estimation Using Multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber Models-The Case of the Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus in Spain.

The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is an endangered species with a specialist osteophagous (bone) diet. We estimated the survival and productivity of this vulture in the Aragonese Pyrenees, where the main population of the species in Europe is found. We used a database covering a period of 33 years (1987-2020). To estimate the probability of survival, we used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with a Bayesian approach. Our models estimated a survival rate of 0.90 ± 0.08 in juveniles, 0.95 ± 0.04 in subadults and 0.92 ± 0.05 in adults. The survival probability increased over the study period in adults and subadults but not in juveniles. By contrast, productivity decreased over the same period. Our study provides updated information on the status of two demographic parameters of great importance to the species and allows us to identify the most vulnerable age classes and to plan conservation actions to improve the situation of the species in a territory that is a donor of specimens for reintroduction projects. The estimated survival values suggest that more caution should be exercised when planning these feeding points according to the use the species makes of them.

West Nile virus in the Iberian Peninsula: using equine cases to identify high-risk areas for humans.

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans and horses are incidental dead-end hosts. In 2020, the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the Iberian Peninsula occurred, with 141 clusters in horses and 77 human cases.AimWe analysed which drivers influence spillover from the cycle to humans and equines and identified areas at risk for WNV transmission.MethodsBased on data on WNV cases in horses and humans in 2020 in Portugal and Spain, we developed logistic regression models using environmental and anthropic variables to highlight risk areas. Models were adapted to a high-resolution risk map.ResultsCases of WNV in horses could be used as indicators of viral activity and thus predict cases in humans. The risk map of horses was able to define high-risk areas for previous cases in humans and equines in Portugal and Spain, as well as predict human and horse cases in the transmission seasons of 2021 and 2022. We found that the spatial patterns of the favourable areas for outbreaks correspond to the main hydrographic basins of the Iberian Peninsula, jointly affecting Portugal and Spain.ConclusionA risk map highlighting the risk areas for potential future cases could be cost-effective as a means of promoting preventive measures to decrease incidence of WNV infection in Europe, based on a One Health surveillance approach.

Gone (and spread) with the birds: Can chorotype analysis highlight the spread of West Nile virus within the Afro-Palaearctic flyway?

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally significant vector-borne disease that is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes. Recently, there has been an increase in WNV in southern Europe, with new cases reported in more northern regions. Bird migration plays a crucial role in the introduction of WNV in distant areas. To better understand and address this complex issue, we adopted a One Health approach, integrating clinical, zoological, and ecological data. We analyzed the role of migratory birds in the Palaearctic-African region in the spread of WNV across Africa and Europe. We categorized bird species into breeding and wintering chorotypes based on their distribution during the breeding season in the Western Palaearctic and the wintering season in the Afrotropical region, respectively. By linking these chorotypes to the occurrence of WNV outbreaks in both continents throughout the annual bird migration cycle, we investigated the relationship between migratory patterns and virus spread. We demonstrate that WNV-risk areas are interconnected through the migration of birds. We identified a total of 61 species that potentially contribute to the intercontinental spread of the virus or its variants, as well as pinpointed high-risk areas for future outbreaks. This interdisciplinary approach, which considers the interconnectedness of animals, humans, and ecosystems, represents a pioneering effort to establish connections between zoonotic diseases across continents. The findings of our study can aid in anticipating the arrival of new WNV strains and predicting the occurrence of other re-emerging diseases. By incorporating various disciplines, we can enhance our understanding of these complex dynamics and provide valuable insights for proactive and comprehensive disease management strategies.

Southern Europe is becoming climatically favourable for African birds: anticipating the establishment of a new species.

BACKGROUND: The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. RESULTS: The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. CONCLUSIONS: We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

An African West Nile virus risk map for travellers and clinicians.

International travellers are exposed to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, including West Nile virus (WNV). Due to the difficulty of its diagnosis, little is known about its distribution in Africa. Understanding the geographic extent of risk of WNV infections is a necessity for both travellers and clinicians who advise and treat them, since there is no human vaccine. To date, there is no risk map for WNV infections in humans in Africa. Having a high-resolution risk map for the virus could be of relevance before the trip, to take preventive measures, and after the trip, for appropriate diagnosis of the disease. Virus detection in humans along the African continent were collected from official reports, and published scientific research for the period 1940 to 2020, and then geo-referenced in order to use biogeographical modelling for WNV. Models were based on fuzzy logic and machine learning algorithms and were designed to identify the environmental drivers that explain the distribution of human cases and to locate favourable areas for infections. We elaborated a high-resolution risk map for WNV infections that highlights favourable areas for infections in Africa. Although WNV infections are widely spread across Africa, the risk of the disease is not homogenously distributed. Popular tourist destinations such as Morocco, Tunisia, and South Africa, are high-risk areas for WNV infection.

Mapping the Risk for West Nile Virus Transmission, Africa.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emergent arthropodborne virus that is transmitted from bird to bird by mosquitoes. Spillover events occur when infected mosquitoes bite mammals. We created a geopositioned database of WNV presence in Africa and considered reports of the virus in all animal components: reservoirs, vectors, and nonhuman dead-end hosts. We built various biogeographic models to determine which drivers explain the distribution of WNV throughout Africa. Wetlands of international importance for birds accounted for the detection of WNV in all animal components, whereas human-related drivers played a key role in the epizootic cases. We combined these models to obtain an integrative and large-scale perspective of the areas at risk for WNV spillover. Understanding which areas pose the highest risk would enable us to address the management of this spreading disease and to comprehend the translocation of WNV outside Africa through avian migration routes.

Micro and Nano-Plastics in the Environment: Research Priorities for the Near Future.

Plastic litter dispersed in the different environmental compartments represents one of the most concerning problems associated with human activities. Specifically, plastic particles in the micro and nano size scale are ubiquitous and represent a threat to human health and the environment. In the last few decades, a huge amount of research has been devoted to evaluate several aspects of micro/nano-plastic contamination: origin and emissions, presence in different compartments, environmental fate, effects on human health and the environment, transfer in the food web and the role of associated chemicals and microorganisms. Nevertheless, despite the bulk of information produced, several knowledge gaps still exist. The objective of this paper is to highlight the most important of these knowledge gaps and to provide suggestions for the main research needs required to describe and understand the most controversial points to better orient the research efforts for the near future. Some of the major issues that need further efforts to improve our knowledge on the exposure, effects and risk of micro/nano-plastics are: harmonization of sampling procedures; development of more accurate, less expensive and less time-consuming analytical methods; assessment of degradation patterns and environmental fate of fragments; evaluating the capabilities for bioaccumulation and transfer to the food web; and evaluating the fate and the impact of chemicals and microorganisms associated with micro/nano-plastics. The major gaps in all sectors of our knowledge, from exposure to potentially harmful effects, refer to small size microplastics and, particularly, to the occurrence, fate and effects of nanoplastics.

Anticipating the locations in Europe of high-risk areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in 2021.

West Nile virus infections in humans are continuously increasing, and the virus has spread considerably in Europe over the past decade. The incidence of the disease was unusually high between 2018 and 2020. The resulting model identifies the West Nile virus outbreak-prone areas during 2021, even in regions where the virus has not yet been discovered. It is remarkable that in Central Europe, new favourable areas are emerging, where early actions could lessen the impact of the disease.

Black kites of different age and sex show similar avoidance responses to wind turbines during migration.

Populations of soaring birds are often impacted by wind-power generation. Sex and age bias in turbine collisions can exacerbate these impacts through demographic changes that can lead to population decline or collapse. While several studies have reported sex and age differences in the number of soaring birds killed by turbines, it remains unclear if they result from different abundances or group-specific turbine avoidance behaviours, the latter having severer consequences. We investigated sex and age effects on turbine avoidance behaviour of black kites (Milvus migrans) during migration near the Strait of Gibraltar. We tracked the movements of 135 individuals with GPS data loggers in an area with high density of turbines and then modelled the effect of proximity of turbines on bird utilization distribution (UD). Both sexes and age classes showed similar patterns of displacement, with reduced UD values in the proximity of turbines and a clear peak at 700-850 m away, probably marking the distance at which most birds turn direction to avoid approaching the turbines further. The consistency of these patterns indicates that displacement range can be used as an accurate proxy for collision risk and habitat loss, and should be incorporated in environmental impact assessment studies.

Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change.

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.

The gateway to Africa: What determines sea crossing performance of a migratory soaring bird at the Strait of Gibraltar?

Large bodies of water represent major obstacles for the migration of soaring birds because thermal updrafts are absent or weak over water. Soaring birds are known to time their water crossings with favourable weather conditions and there are records of birds falling into the water and drowning in large numbers. However, it is still unclear how environmental factors, individual traits and trajectory choices affect their water crossing performance, this being important to understand the fitness consequences of water barriers for this group of birds. We addressed this problem using the black kite Milvus migrans as model species at a major migration bottleneck, the Strait of Gibraltar. We recorded high-resolution GPS and triaxial accelerometer data for 73 birds while crossing the Strait of Gibraltar, allowing the determination of sea crossing duration, length, altitude, speed and tortuosity, the flapping behaviour of birds and their failed crossing attempts. These parameters were modelled against wind speed and direction, time of the day, solar irradiance (proxy of thermal uplift), starting altitude and distance to Morocco, and age and sex of birds. We found that sea crossing performance of black kites is driven by their age, the wind conditions, the starting altitude and distance to Morocco. Young birds made longer sea crossings and reached lower altitude above the sea than adults. Crosswinds promoted longer sea crossings, with birds reaching lower altitudes and with higher flapping effort. Birds starting at lower altitudes were more likely to quit or made higher flapping effort to complete the crossing. The location where birds started the sea crossings impacted crossing distance and duration. We present evidence that explains why migrating soaring birds accumulate at sea passages during adverse weather conditions. Strong crosswinds during sea crossings force birds to extended flap-powered flight at low altitude, which may increase their chances of falling in the water. We also showed that juvenile birds assume more risks than adults. Finally, the way in which birds start the sea crossing is crucial for their success, particularly the starting altitude, which dictates how far birds can reach with reduced flapping effort.

Wind turbines cause functional habitat loss for migratory soaring birds.

Wind energy production has expanded to meet climate change mitigation goals, but negative impacts of wind turbines have been reported on wildlife. Soaring birds are among the most affected groups with alarming fatality rates by collision with wind turbines and an escalating occupation of their migratory corridors. These birds have been described as changing their flight trajectories to avoid wind turbines, but this behaviour may lead to functional habitat loss, as suitable soaring areas in the proximity of wind turbines will likely be underused. We modelled the displacement effect of wind turbines on black kites (Milvus migrans) tracked by GPS. We also evaluated the impact of this effect at the scale of the landscape by estimating how much suitable soaring area was lost to wind turbines. We used state-of-the-art tracking devices to monitor the movements of 130 black kites in an area populated by wind turbines, at the migratory bottleneck of the Strait of Gibraltar. Landscape use by birds was mapped from GPS data using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models, and generalized additive mixed modelling was used to estimate the effect of wind turbine proximity on bird use while accounting for orographic and thermal uplift availability. We found that areas up to approximately 674 m away from the turbines were less used than expected given their uplift potential. Within that distance threshold, bird use decreased with the proximity to wind turbines. We estimated that the footprint of wind turbines affected 3%-14% of the areas suitable for soaring in our study area. We present evidence that the impacts of wind energy industry on soaring birds are greater than previously acknowledged. In addition to the commonly reported fatalities, the avoidance of turbines by soaring birds causes habitat losses in their movement corridors. Authorities should recognize this further impact of wind energy production and establish new regulations that protect soaring habitat. We also showed that soaring habitat for birds can be modelled at a fine scale using publicly available data. Such an approach can be used to plan low-impact placement of turbines in new wind energy developments.

Assessing global range expansion in a cryptic species complex: insights from the red seaweed genus Asparagopsis (Florideophyceae).

The mitochondrial genetic diversity, distribution and invasive potential of multiple cryptic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of the red invasive seaweed Asparagopsis were assessed by studying introduced Mediterranean and Hawaiian populations. Invasive behavior of each Asparagopsis OTU was inferred from phylogeographic reconstructions, past historical demographic dynamics, recent range expansion assessments and future distributional predictions obtained from demographic models. Genealogical networks resolved Asparagopsis gametophytes and tetrasporophytes into four A. taxiformis and one A. armata cryptic OTUs. Falkenbergia isolates of A. taxiformis L3 were recovered for the first time in the western Mediterranean Sea and represent a new introduction for this area. Neutrality statistics supported past range expansion for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in Hawaii. On the other hand, extreme geographic expansion and an increase in effective population size were found only for A. taxiformis L2 in the western Mediterranean Sea. Distribution models predicted shifts of the climatically suitable areas and population expansion for A. armata L1 and A. taxiformis L1 and L2. Our integrated study confirms a high invasive risk for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in temperate and tropical areas. Despite the differences in predictions among modelling approaches, a number of regions were identified as zones with high invasion risk for A. taxiformis L2. Since range shifts are likely climate-driven phenomena, future invasive behavior cannot be excluded for the rest of the lineages.

Match between soaring modes of black kites and the fine-scale distribution of updrafts.

Understanding how soaring birds use updrafts at small spatial scales is important to identify ecological constraints of movement, and may help to prevent conflicts between wind-energy development and the conservation of wildlife. We combined high-frequency GPS animal tracking and fine-spatial-scale uplift modelling to establish a link between flight behaviour of soaring birds and the distribution of updrafts. We caught 21 black kites (Milvus migrans) and GPS-tracked them while flying over the Tarifa region, on the Spanish side of the Strait of Gibraltar. This region has a diverse topography and land cover, favouring a heterogeneous updraft spatial distribution. Bird tracks were segmented and classified into flight modes from motion parameters. Thermal and orographic uplift velocities were modelled from publically available remote-sensing and meteorological data. We found that birds perform circular soaring in areas of higher predicted thermal uplift and linear soaring in areas of higher predicted orographic uplift velocity. We show that updraft maps produced from publically available data can be used to predict where soaring birds will concentrate their flight paths and how they will behave in flight. We recommend the use of this methodological approach to improve environmental impact assessments of new wind-energy installations.

Unrelenting spread of the alien monk parakeet Myiopsitta monachus in Israel. Is it time to sound the alarm?

BACKGROUND: Monk parakeets, Myiopsitta monachus Boddaert, are native to South America but have established populations in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia. They are claimed to act as agricultural pests in their native range, and their communal stick nests may damage human infrastructure. Although several monk parakeet populations are present in the Mediterranean Basin and temperate Europe, little empirical data are available on their population size and growth, distribution and potential impact. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of monk parakeets in Israel to assess their invasion success and potential impact on agriculture. RESULTS: Monk parakeet populations are growing exponentially at a higher rate than that reported elsewhere. The current Israeli population of monk parakeets comprises approximately 1500 individuals. The distribution of the species has increased and shifted from predominantly urban areas to agricultural landscapes. CONCLUSIONS: In Israel, monk parakeet populations are growing fast and have dispersed rapidly from cities to agricultural areas. At present, reports of agricultural damage are scarce. A complete assessment of possible management strategies is urgently needed before the population becomes too large and widespread to allow for cost-effective mitigation campaigns to be implemented. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change.

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.